A surge of inflation has hiked prices for everything from gasoline to tomatoes, but a looming source of sticker shock will drop onto household budgets over the coming months: heating costs. The historic oil shortage set off by the Iran war is expected to drive up heating bills at a pace more than twice the level of overall inflation, squeezing households as they weather elevated prices for a range of other essentials, some analysts told ABC News. U.S. households will spend an average of $1,030 to heat their homes this winter, which amounts to an increase of 8.7% compared to last year, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) said in a report earlier this week.
Households that rely on heating oil -- a major heating source in the Northeast U.S. -- will suffer a staggering average price increase of 31.3% compared to last year, NEADA found. Customers who depend on natural gas are expected to face a jump of 5.8%. "The costs we're expecting are unusually high this winter," David Konisky, a political science professor at Indiana University and co-director of the Energy Justice Lab, told ABC News.
A large-scale U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in late February prompted Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz , which facilitates one-fifth of global crude supply. The ensuing war set off the largest oil supply disruption on record and prompted the release of hundreds of millions of barrels of reserve crude from emergency storage in dozens of countries. A six-month stretch of on-again, off-again fighting has continued to choke off oil supply and keep prices elevated.
Global oil prices stood at about $103 a barrel as of Friday afternoon, putting them nearly 50% higher than their pre-war level. The surge in crude costs has propelled diesel prices to a record high and pushed the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline to $4.46, AAA data showed. Drone view of oil tanker HELGA berthed near Basra, in the Strait of Hormuz, April 24, 2026.
Mohammed Aty/Reuters Lesser-known fallout from the oil spike will soon hit heating bills as temperatures cool later this year, some analysts said. The average heating oil price in Maine, for instance, registers at $5.77 per gallon, putting it 74% higher than a year ago, the Maine Department of Energy Resources (DOER) said earlier this week. Alicia Fasulo, the director of heating assistance at The Opportunity Alliance, a non-profit in southern Maine, said many low-income families in the region are "extremely concerned" about heating costs as winter approaches.
Popular Reads "They have tough decisions about whether to pay for their groceries, whether to pay for their medications, electric bills or fuel costs," Fasulo said. "Our clients are faced with tough decisions every winter season, but the cost of fuel has never been this high since I started with the heat program seven years ago," Fasulo added. Maine residents will spend an average of nearly $675 more to fill a standard 275-gallon tank to capacity than they would have a year ago, the DOER said.
Eligible households can avail themselves of the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, a federally-funded program that provides $4 billion in annual support to defray heating costs. The program is a "huge help" for roughly 5,000 applicants who receive assistance from The Opportunity Alliance submitting paperwork each year, Fasulo said. Only one of every five eligible households nationwide gains access to the program each year, however, in part due to the limited resources available, Konisky said.
"There is much more demand than there are resources to fill that demand," Konisky added. To be sure, the precise heating costs to be incurred this winter remain uncertain. The price of heating oil could fluctuate and El Niño may bring warmer-than-usual temperatures.
Still, it remains all but certain that elevated inflation will persist into the winter months, Konisky said. The annual inflation rate stood at 3.4% as of August, the most recent month on record, putting inflation more than a percentage point above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%. "Families will have to figure out how to balance the essential needs they have," Konisky said.
